Interesting but unsurprising polling perhaps. Although the headline is only 18% of leavers think Brexit has been a success, it does also include 61% still think it will turn out well in the end. 72% of the leavers would still vote for Brexit even knowing how it’s turned out.

Given how close the referendum was, this is yet another poll suggesting the vote would have tipped the other way if run now. Although that is just illustrative, it’s quite different to voting to join the EU now which I doubt would be popular.

I think the threshold for rejoining is much higher than it was for leaving - we’d have to sign up to the Euro, we’d get no rebates despite the ongoing borked common agricultural policy, and all the negative aspects of the EU would come back to the fore. I was a remainer, but many of the negatives of the EU have often been ignored due to the polarisation of the debate, including by EU citizens who have focused on a them-vs-us mentality thanks to the antagnostic approach of the Conservative government.

But the EU does have serious problems - structural problems in the Eurozone, unfixed since the 2008 debt crisis, major issues with democratic accountability and unaddressed financial corruption, difficulties effectively dealing with members like Hungry and Poland as they slide towards more authoritarianism, and lack of consensus on dealing with the migration issues which continue to cost lives and are a stain on the entire EU’s (and the UK’s) reputation. Despite being a remainer, if I’m honest I’m not sure how I’d vote.

Truss seem’s unable to accept that her ideas and approach were fundamentally broken. Borrowing to fund tax cuts for the wealthy is just a bad idea. The supposed logic that it would stimulate growth as it is based on an over reliance on “trickle down economics” and also a lack of appreciation of the reality of the last 13 years since the 2008 economic crisis. Interest rates have been low, and “quantitative easing” created cheap money amassed by the wealthy and cheap credit with a low return economy; the wealthy have been hoarding this money rather than investing it in growth and enterprise.

Borrowing to invest in infrastructure such as the hospital rebuilds, HS2 and the Northern Power House rail, and to build a fund for a UK public alternative for business & investment financing to foster entrepreneurs - that would have been a good approach. Using the money to build and buy assets, and invest in growing new companies would both stimulate the economy by putting money into peoples & businessed pockets, while getting something directly in exchange - assets and loans/shares in new companies - and should reassure the markets that the money isn’t just being frittered away on a crazy experiment.

Yeah. Ultimately this is the BoE’s fault for not acting faster and harder. Interest rates would still have gone up but the pain may have been less severe.

Sunak was a fool for trying to take credit for Inflation. He based it on the optimistic predictions that inflation would rapidly come under control and improve towards the end of the year. Instead inflation is not shifting, and interest rates are likely to need to stay higher for longer and probably go up further, plus we’re now realistically looking at a potential recession.

Sunak is out of his depth, and it’s yet another poor leader in a run of 4 now (May, Johnson, Truss) showing how depleted the Conservative party is of talent and any sort of vision.

Expect companies to push hard against anything that costs them money. In this case, there is a smal overhead for reminding subscribers, but the “subscribe and forget about it” is an important source of revenue. Particularly the users who get a “free” subscription, barely used it but it converts to a paid subscription. I’m sure they can live without the revenue stream, but of course they want to keep it if they can as it’s zero effort money.

The whole reason this is being proposed is because this is a widespread issue affecting consumers.

We really need electoral reform - enough of parties getting big majorities in the commons and stuffing the lords with supporters.

Even starting with proportional representation in local elections would be a game changer. Although the tories got rid of it in London to increase their chances of winning the mayoralty.

The best outcome in the next election is a hung parliament with Labour depending on the Lib Dems for a majority, and the Lib Dems forcing through electoral reform. No referendums, no more dicussion. They should do what all the other parties do and say “parliament is supreme and our manifesto was clear”.

Yeah I agree - subsidising solar and also subsidising heat pump conversions and insulation for for older properties are essential parts of the mix. These would be impactful on energy generation / energy saving, and in removing our reliance on gas for heating.

I’m not sure how I feel about this. Credit to him for changing his mind but that he thought it was appropriate in the first place says a lot. To be clear, tory MPs are abstaining not to “move on from the drama” as he puts it, but because they are worried about how Tory members in their local associations will react if they vote in favour. This is tempered by concerns that in the upcoming election next year opposition candidates might use their unwillingness to vote against them.

The tory mess just keeps going and going.

They’re hoping that but it’s looking increasingly unachievable. In particular the time bomb is people who fixed at 1-2% but next year they’ll be facing deals new deals next year that are looking like 5-6% at a minimum barring a rapid cooling of inflation.

But yeah, it’s not impossible they can benefit from an improvement in the economy and slashing taxes. I just don’t see it working personally even if they can get into a position to do it.

The question is what does Boris do next? In some ways resigning made sense as a gamble - he could get out of his marginal seat and potentially step into a safe seat vacated by an ally. But if the Tory leadership block him for being a candidate then what does he do? Stand as an independent? Stand for Mayor of London again as is rumoured (which would be a disaster for him as he’s not popular in London anymore).

I can’t see him just giving up and returning to journalism. Maybe the next leader of the tories will be an ally who will work to bring him back to “save the party” (as the party will probably be a rump party after the next election and has been shaped in his image)

The article is behind a pay wall but accessible here: https://archive.is/CELPA

I think they’re right - this is a ticking time bomb and even if the mortgage market comes under control in the next few months, rate are going to be high all the way through to the next election in Autumn/Winter 2024.

An economy under pressure, with people having to sell their homes in a depressed property market or worse families having their homes repossessed - I can’t see the tories coming back form this.

No party has come back from so far back in the polls to win an election at this stage. Also the tories are hopelessly divided - everything they feel like they’re “getting somewhere” their divisions come to the for again.

On top of all that, the mortgage timebomb alongside the inflation problems are looking like they’re lasting longer than expected/hoped. I’d expect much of next year to be dominated with stories about families struggling to cope with the high mortgage rates, being forced to sell their homes and the property market being a mess. It’s not a good situation to be in but I can’t see how the Tories can see that out.

This drama is going to play out all the way up to the election. At the moment it looks like he star is on the wane but it really depends on how much support he really has amongst the Tory members.

The party after the next election is going to be a mess. They’ll either elect someone to the right of the party and fester in irrelevence for years or possibly back to Boris for more drama. Could he even stand as an independent if the leadership try and keep him out of a seat?

This drama never seems to end.

It’s global warming - it’s decided to take the weekends off so it can also indulge in avocado toast.

Are we a nation of cumudgeons?