Flâneur, dilettante, and aesthete. Interested in the three Fs: Fauna, Flora, Funga (especially the latter), history, maps, and food. I also make Origami cranes and play the occasional game of chess.
The last time this happened was in 1906 when Arthur Balfour lost his seat in the Manchester East constituency during the Liberal landslide victory.
Edit: Balfour resigned as PM in December in 1905 in an attempt to force an election. The Liberal Henry Campbell-Bannerman instead managed to form a government and thus was PM at the time of 1906 general election. I had forgotten Balfour resigned. So, yes if Sunak is unseated this will be a political first (for the UK at least).
You’re are quite right of course. Two main weaknesses of these opinions polls, regardless of the methodology are:
the outcome is based on the moment the question was asked and;
the complex reality of voter behaviour is simplified by assuming that the change in support for each party from one election to the next is the same across all constituencies. Which fails to take into consideration the following:
Regional variations, new candidates and Issues and finally tactical voting.
So yeah in a nutshell these polls are utterly meaningless but in the absence of a crystal ball something is better than nothing, despite the crude nature of the something.
Lamentable but copyright is a critical mechanism for protecting the rights of creators.
I’m not a labour supporter but I would be happy to see the conservatives reduced to 43 or less.
Personally, I think the more the narrative is framed around Labour winning a ‘super majority’ the opposite might actually be the case. If think Labour are going to win with such a majority will Labour supporters a) still vote and b) would they still vote for Labour - they could afford the vote for another centre-left party as the outcome is not going to change - however the more that people think like that the greater the risk the epic landslide ebbs away. Still can’t see Reform making a breakthrough (which incidentally, this poll has Reform on zero seats).
I would have thought Biden supporters would support Biden. This is hardly a revelation.
Sometimes I wonder why America is a called “the land of the free”.
“I like being dominant with women sexually and submissive with men…”
I’m exactly the same.
How so? It isn’t the trans lobby that should be fearful but women. Afterall Kier despite being married to one, doesn’t know what a woman is.