- 28 Posts
- 29 Comments
2·1 year agoIt does depend on how much people just ‘go labour’ because thats the ‘not tory’ vote, and how many look at their constituency and see Lib Dems in second, Labour can’t actually fight everywhere with ground game, and in many places they won’t really want to mand Lib Dems can and will do.
I haven’t played with the tactical voting bit of Electoral Calculus mostly because it is a nationwide value and the regions will differ so much in who they vote if they are voting ‘not tory’. Wales and North go Labour far more just as a baseline, East, South and South-West go Lib Dem more but not in cities, London does Labour, Lib Dem and Green in different ratios depending on borough.
It’s all a bit of a fun nightmare to try that’s also a guess and there’s no public tools (I know of) to try it even if you wanted to, which I kinda do; as any level of tactical voting hammers the Tories even more than these predictions and that’s always fun to see.
Oh I don’t dare underestimate the change in public opinions when it’s election time and suddenly their vote is close and they have to think. I know it happened for Labour in 2017 and a bit in 2019, but it can happen either way.
Don’t get me wrong, Labour could coast into a comfy majority the way things are looking atm.
And those poor Lib Dems, I do think they are being underestimated by the models, but it doesn’t look amazing for them eh.
I think whats worse is, looking at and putting in the regional info from their data table, other than the Wales Green party numbers…this one actually feels right, loads of other polls the Scotland numbers have been all over the place, low numbers of people and odd % turning up, but this one doesn’t have anything glaring out at me that’s horrifically and clearly sampling error, even Flavible’s more uniform and conservative model is absolutely brutal at these numbers, and these numbers are what, 1-2% up or down from the average over the last week or so.
This is BEFORE we have an election campaign and Purdah, we know Rishi isn’t the greatest campaigner and he clearly doesn’t like questions, PMQs or being questioned and that all thats going to happen to him for WEEKS during the election.
Dare we start to hope?
2·1 year agoThis whole thing is fascinating not for the whole Huw Edwards bit, but for the all the editorial decisions in The Sun. I mean, what were they thinking?
Flavible:
Party Pred % Pred Seats CON 🌳 28.0% 199 LAB 🌹 43.0% 365 LD 🔶 9.0% 28 REFUK ➡️ 8.0% 0 Green 🌍 6.0% 1 SNP 🎗️ 3% 33 PC 💮 0.5% 3 Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries’):
Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats CON 🌳 44.7% 375 28.0% 9 213 -204 172 LAB 🌹 33.0% 198 43.0% 233 0 +233 430 LIB 🔶 11.8% 8 9% 8 0 +8 16 Reform ➡️ 2.1% 0 8% 0 0 +0 0 Green 🌍 2.8% 1 6% 0 0 +0 1 SNP 🎗️ 4.0% 48 3.0% 0 38 -38 10 PlaidC 💮 0.5% 2 0.5% 1 1 +0 2 Other ⬜️ 1.1% 0 2.5% 1 0 +1 1 N.Ire ⬜️ - 18 - 0 0 +0 18 Scotland EC Break-Down
Con Lab Lib REF Green SNP 28% 31% 3% 1% 3% 31% Don’t believe the Scots numbers for a second in this poll; and they are having a real impact on the EC seat numbers.
“Nothing to report sir; just a meaningless and ever increasingly large and dense cluster of outliers”
Those poor LibDems though…
Flavible:
Party Pred % Pred Seats CON 🌳 25.0% 129 LAB 🌹 51.0% 435 LD 🔶 8.0% 29 REFUK ➡️ 5.0% 0 Green 🌍 5.0% 1 SNP 🎗️ 3% 31 PC 💮 0.5% 3 Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries’):
Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats CON 🌳 44.7% 376 25.0% 1 325 -324 52 LAB 🌹 33.0% 197 51.0% 338 0 +338 535 LIB 🔶 11.8% 8 8% 8 0 +8 16 Reform ➡️ 2.1% 0 7% 0 0 +0 0 Green 🌍 2.8% 1 6% 0 0 +0 1 SNP 🎗️ 4.0% 48 3.5% 0 15 -23 25 PlaidC 💮 0.5% 2 0.4% 1 1 +0 2 Other ⬜️ 1.1% 0 2.0% 1 0 +1 1 N.Ire ⬜️ - 18 - 0 0 +0 18
Flavible:
Party Pred % Pred Seats CON 🌳 22.0% 95 LAB 🌹 47.0% 453 LD 🔶 9.0% 43 REFUK ➡️ 9.0% 0 Green 🌍 7.0% 1 SNP 🎗️ 3% 33 PC 💮 0.5% 3 Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries’) *updated with Scotland as full tables are available:
Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats CON 🌳 44.7% 375 22.0% 0 313 -313 63 LAB 🌹 33.0% 198 47.0% 328 0 +328 525 LIB 🔶 11.8% 8 9% 12 0 +12 20 Reform ➡️ 2.1% 0 9% 0 0 +0 0 Green 🌍 2.8% 1 7% 0 0 +0 1 SNP 🎗️ 4.0% 48 3.2% 3 31 -28 20 PlaidC 💮 0.5% 2 0.4% 1 1 +0 2 Other ⬜️ 1.1% 0 2.3% 1 0 +1 1 N.Ire ⬜️ - 18 - 0 0 +0 18 Scotland EC Break-Down 👀
Con Lab Lib REF Green SNP 13% 36% 9% 2% 5% 33% PrincipleFish
[Broad Region breakdown used here]
General election 2019: Tamworth
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Conservative Chris Pincher 30,542 66.3 +5.3 Labour & Co-op Chris Bain 10,908 23.7 –11.1 Liberal Democrats Rob Wheway 2,426 5.3 +1.1 Green Andrew Tilley 935 2.0 New UKIP Robert Bilcliff 814 1.8 New Independant John Wright 431 0.9 New Majority 19,634 42.6 +16.4 Turnout 46,056 64.3 –1.8 Conservative hold Swing +8.2 The mountain to Climb FYI. And a rare 2019 UKIP showing too. Current Nowcast prediction below:
PrincipleFish
Electoral Calculus
Flavible:
Party Pred % Pred Seats CON 28.0% 177 LAB 46.0% 380 LD 11.0% 35 REFUK 4.0% 0 Green 4.0% 1 SNP 3% 32 PC 0.5% 3 Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries’):
Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats CON 44.7% 375 28.0% 1 236 -235 141 LAB 33.0% 198 46.0% 248 0 +248 445 LIB 11.8% 8 11% 9 0 +9 17 Reform 2.1% 0 4% 0 0 +0 0 Green 2.8% 1 4% 0 0 +0 1 SNP 4.0% 48 3.5% 0 23 -23 25 PlaidC 0.5% 2 0.5% 1 1 +0 2 Other 1.1% 0 3.0% 0 0 +0 0 N.Ire - 18 - 0 0 +0 18 The difference 28% Con vs 24-5% Con is quite something. Still puts Labour in or close to the 400 Club (again).
This iconic duo also has spritz of misogyny just for extra flavour
I have a feeling (because I know nothing) that EC and PrincipleFish either use a uniform swing approach or a very lightly weighted model, where as Flavible and EC have an actual weighted model but even then the models can’t really account for the pull of an individual MP and their…electoral inertia?
Paisley is a real Labour target but Mhairi’s majority is big enough that it isn’t caught by uniform swings and the weighted models aren’t picking it up on these numbers probably/possibly because the model isn’t updated with he rnot standing…or, the weighting for incumbent MP and/or popular incumbent MP is basically a finger in the air educated guess from the model creator, which isn’t really a model.
But what do I know
Flavible:
Party Pred % Pred Seats SNP 35.0% 18 LAB 32.0% 29 CON 21.0% 7 LD 7.0% 5 REFUK 2.0% 0 Green 2.0% 0 Turns out I’m an idiot and Flavible do let you select Scotland Only, different story from them and the others.
PrincipleFish & ElectionPolling.co.uk
As predicted by Principlefish, same from Election Polling, Flavible and EC don’t really have scotland only predictors for a full GE.
Of polls recently, past week or so, this one has both Green and REF on less than the others I remember. 7% & 8% shuffling between them.
But those polls had Lab lower than 48% so could be a Deltapoll thing, weighting etc.
I will be interested in the true GE numbers they get, will REF get Con protest votes if the boomers still vote in the same numbers as usual (almost all REF support was 55+) and will Greens regress back to 2-3% because the plurality of their vote goes tactical…
It’s a joke that FPTP turns all these parties into a joke.
I’m actually super sceptical of the Scotland only numbers in the poll, I expect fewer SNP seats overall as a hunch. But the LibDem numbers they have for Scotland I flat out don’t believe.
Polling error, chance, and/or weighting I don’t know, but colour me sceptical.
Flavible:
Party Pred % Pred Seats CON 25.0% 132 LAB 48.0% 403 LD 10.0% 36 REFUK 5.0% 0 Green 5.0% 1 SNP 4% 53 PC 0.5% 3 Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries’):
Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats CON 44.7% 375 25.0% 0 270 -311 64 LAB 33.0% 198 48.0% 297 0 +297 495 LIB 11.8% 8 10% 9 2 +7 15 Reform 2.1% 0 5% 0 0 +0 0 Green 2.8% 1 5% 0 0 +0 1 SNP 4.0% 48 4.6% 6 0 +6 54 PlaidC 0.5% 2 0.5% 1 1 +0 2 Other 1.1% 0 0.1% 0 0 +0 0 N.Ire - 18 - 0 0 +0 18 Scotland EC Break-Down
Con Lab Lib REF Green SNP 21% 26% 2% 0% 2% 47% - This one just feels wrong with the scotland numbers
PrincipleFish
- Deltapoll give easy access to their regions breakdown so I also put this one through the principlefish election predictor:
I think the ULEZ chat is expectation management from Labour, for if they win by less than they would have hoped to be convincing and to drive a narrative, especially if Selby is a nail biter. But then 1000 seats was expectation management by the tories inthe local elections and look how that went