No party has come back from so far back in the polls to win an election at this stage. Also the tories are hopelessly divided - everything they feel like they’re “getting somewhere” their divisions come to the for again.

On top of all that, the mortgage timebomb alongside the inflation problems are looking like they’re lasting longer than expected/hoped. I’d expect much of next year to be dominated with stories about families struggling to cope with the high mortgage rates, being forced to sell their homes and the property market being a mess. It’s not a good situation to be in but I can’t see how the Tories can see that out.