• DragonTypeWyvern@midwest.social
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    6 days ago

    Biden is going to run. It’s July, he should have announced he wasn’t seeking a second term but he didn’t and it’s too late to swap.

    Biden is going to win because Trump has gone full mask off as a fascist and the competition could be a potato.

    Then we’ll be stuck with a sunsetting neoliberal and vaguely hoping he steps down at some point so his ACAB-proving VP can take over.

    Then she’s going to lose 2028 because literally no one likes her and the Republic falls anyways.

    • Deceptichum@quokk.au
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      6 days ago

      Yeah like imagine if 4 years ago he pledged to be one term president, that he viewed himself as a “transition president” and as a “bridge” to the next leader “not as anything else”.

      Much like Bidens pier, his bridge led to lies as well.

      • rebelsimile@sh.itjust.works
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        6 days ago

        If he’d done that he would have been lame duck on day 1. The second he says he’s not running anymore is the complete end of his ability to have any real legislative influence.

          • rebelsimile@sh.itjust.works
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            6 days ago

            Sorry I don’t understand what you mean, are you saying he did indicate that? When? If not, I’m following your hypothetical out. If a president announces he’s leaving (or otherwise is transitioning power to another administration) they’ve basically ceded the remainder of their administrative power.

            • Deceptichum@quokk.au
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              5 days ago

              Multiple times before he was elected.

              Those were direct quotes from him I used above.

              • Spiralvortexisalie@lemmy.world
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                5 days ago

                Like most things Biden, the truth is complicated and not on his side. His camp made many allusions to being one term in 2020, and he made various comments suggesting that news reports of one term had veracity. Now in the same fashion the establishment says he won the primary as the choice of the people (while they blocked supporting anyone else, look up the results where uncommitted aka not Biden ranked higher than his “opponents”), his defenders say he never explicitly said it as a definite so it can’t be criticized, and the myriad of News Articles saying one term from 2020 shouldn’t have been trusted.

    • ashok36@lemmy.world
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      5 days ago

      It’s not too late until the convention is over. That’s literally what it’s for. Biden can direct his pledged delegates to vote for his chosen successor, whoever that might be.

      • Wogi@lemmy.world
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        5 days ago

        It’s too late. Dropping out now practically guarantees Trump wins in November.

        • ashok36@lemmy.world
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          5 days ago

          You say that but that’s just your opinion. The fact is Biden is already behind trump and has lost any momentum he might have had. I’m voting for whoever is on the Democrat ticket but we need the never Trumper and the ones that hate both to break our way. It isn’t enough for them to stay home.

  • PugJesus@lemmy.world
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    6 days ago

    I don’t know that he’s actually significantly worse off than he was before, but he may be heading to the point where, regardless of his health, he has lost the confidence of the electorate in his health.

    • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
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      6 days ago

      This debate, and all of his post-debate has hurt him, surely. But its detached from reality to suggest that Biden wasn’t “severely injured” going into this debate. The difference was that we saw an energized, verbal, focused, able to maintain eye contact and remember the first half of his sentence Joe Biden during the SOTU back in March. Bidens debate was a geriatric who is clearly “sunsetting”. Bidens post debate interviews re-enforced that.

      Biden needs to be leading by 5 (50-55%) in the polls nationally to demonstrate that he had the “confidence” of the electorate. He was leading by 5 in 2020 and barely managed a victory in the EC by 40k net votes. If Biden is at 45% in the polls, he’s not winning the election. Biden is at 35% and dropping.

      Biden hasn’t had the confidence of the electorate, basically ever, in this election cycle. At no point has he been “winning” or even really viable in this campaign. This is just purely what the data show us. Its what Nate Silvers been saying for over a year, its what Ezra Klein has been saying for a long time. The apologists around Biden protected him from any kind of real primary, or significant criticism in what has been the most critical period for evaluating his sufficiency around him as candidate. We were prevented from doing the kind of due diligence required.

      Main points, Biden wasn’t winning this when it wasn’t about his health. Layer in the appallingly clear indications around his health and extrapolate. Biden was doing way better in terms of demonstrating his ability to “be the president” with the SOTU back in March. Draw a line from then to now, and then see where that line puts you 3 months from now. If you’ve ever had an elderly family member “sunset” on you, it is like, shocking how fast it happens.

  • givesomefucks@lemmy.world
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    6 days ago

    “It’s devastating to say it, but the Joe Biden I was with three weeks ago at the fund-raiser was not the Joe ‘big F-ing deal’ Biden of 2010,” Clooney wrote. “He wasn’t even the Joe Biden of 2020. He was the same man we all witnessed at the debate.”

    Biden is going to make some snide remark about him now…

    Just like he has to every other supporter who didn’t give 100% loyalty forever.

    Remember when we all made fun of trump for shit like this?

    • ShepherdPie@midwest.social
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      6 days ago

      People are burying their heads in the sand and will act shocked and point fingers when Biden loses rather than actually try to do something about it while there’s still time.

    • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
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      6 days ago

      Biden is going to make some snide remark about him now…

      “Listen, folks, you gotta understand, this guy, he’s just… well, y’know, he’s a real… um, like a, uh, y’know, a complete… ah, c’mon man, he’s a real knucklehead, can’t even… y’know, get it right, it’s just… malarkey.”

    • Infynis@midwest.social
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      5 days ago

      I noticed he sounded like Trump in one of his recent statements. I guess this is just what happens when you insist on holding the most stressful job imaginable while well beyond the age of retirement

  • Hello_there@fedia.io
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    6 days ago

    I wonder if this is just like how we knew shit was getting real when Tom Hanks spoke out about catching Covid

    • Steve@communick.news
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      6 days ago

      In the booth, on election day, sure.
      But that’s still months away. No reason to not spend today trying to find someone people want to vote for. Someone who’s actually likely to finish the term.

      • girlfreddy@lemmy.ca
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        6 days ago

        Besides, you have to rememeber there’s a large segment of left(ish) voters who may not show up on election day unless there is a leadership change. Keeping Biden would almost guarantee they stay home.

    • givesomefucks@lemmy.world
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      6 days ago

      What?

      It’s a guy who’s has spent literally decades working with the Dem party. Who just held a massive fundraiser for Biden…

      How can anything he says about Biden be:

      some next-level tactics from the republicans

      You think George Clooney spent the last 50 years pretending to be a Dem to keep Biden out of office or something?

      Is it really unbelievable that Clonney no longer thinks Biden can beat Trump?

      He’s got a 34% approval rating…

      Have you tried to find the last incumbent who got relected when only 1/3 of the country approves of them?

      • Grandwolf319@sh.itjust.works
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        5 days ago

        Although I agree with you, to be fair, we are no longer in the normal timeline.

        Now it’s all about voting against people, so I guess disapproval rating of the opposition?

    • PugJesus@lemmy.world
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      6 days ago

      The narrative of “Biden too old to do the job” may have reached critical mass. Regardless of the truth of the matter, politics are in perceptions. The campaign to push the narrative has succeeded - the question is where to go from here.

  • TheDemonBuer@lemmy.world
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    6 days ago

    I’m not sure Biden dropping out is such a great idea. Biden has a lot of supporters among Democratic voters. I’m not sure there is another democrat with his same level of support. There were a lot of contenders for the nomination in 2020, Biden beat 'em all. I think there are a fair number of independents who are motivated by preventing a second Trump term, so they’d vote for anyone who isn’t Trump. Biden meets that criteria. I get why Biden makes people nervous, but who would be better? Who has the same level of support among the diverse democratic voter base?

    • jorp@lemmy.world
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      6 days ago

      Why don’t Biden’s supporters just VOTE BLUE NO MATTER WHO like they tell everyone else to?

      • TheDemonBuer@lemmy.world
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        6 days ago

        Right? All of the sudden Democrats are really concerned about who the Dem candidate is, even though I thought that didn’t matter.

    • dhork@lemmy.world
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      6 days ago

      Did you watch the debate? I was all on board with Biden until he shit the bed. We needed someone with the stamina to stand up to Trump’s gish gallop, and instead Joe finally beat Medicare.

      If he is on the ballot I will vote for him, knowing that I am really voting for his advisers and staff to run the country after 8 pm. But any of the names being thrown about that have experience as Governor or in national politics will be acceptable. Harris, yes, but also Newsom, Whitmer, and any of the others. Harris would be easiest to slot in, since she is technically on the same ballot.

      Do you really think any Democrat in the country would say “I liked Biden, and if they get rid of him I’m staying home?” It’s more likely the opposite, that people aren’t looking forward to voting for Bide and may end up staying home instead.

      • TheDemonBuer@lemmy.world
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        6 days ago

        Do you really think any Democrat in the country would say “I liked Biden, and if they get rid of him I’m staying home?”

        I mean, yeah, I kinda do. There are a lot of democratic voters who don’t know who Newsom or Whitmer are, but they know Uncle Joe, the guy who was Obama’s vice for eight years.

        It’s more likely the opposite, that people aren’t looking forward to voting for Bide and may end up staying home instead.

        Is it? I don’t know.

        Like you said, if Biden’s on the ticket you’ll vote for him. I think a lot of people will do the same.

        • Whirling_Ashandarei@lemmy.world
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          6 days ago

          The problem with this argument is it only works for people who show up to vote, and if the Dems don’t get people, particularly young people, inspired enough to do so, then they’ll lose. Fear only works as a motivator for so long, at some point, you need to provide a carrot and not just the stick.

        • Steve@communick.news
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          6 days ago

          if Biden’s on the ticket you’ll vote for him.

          I know I’d vote for a cat if it was on the ticket. Even an orange one. And I’d feel better about it than voting for Biden, since I’d know nobody was lying to me about it’s ability to do the job.

          It would be more entertaining than sad anyway.

    • Steve@communick.news
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      6 days ago

      I don’t think you’re taking into account the dynamics of Biden’s situation here. He no longer has the support he once had. Almost anyone would do at least as well as Biden is doing now. And it’ll only get worse for him.

      The Democrats need to switch to a contested convention as fast as possible. Other hopefuls need to start talking as though Biden is already out, and make their case for the nomination.

    • MegaUltraChicken@lemmy.world
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      6 days ago

      The problem is (for me at least) he’s recently shown he can’t campaign like he did in 2020, and he needs to surpass that effort right now.

      • WamGams@lemmy.ca
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        5 days ago

        My response to that would be that in 2020 he had the weakest campaign and still had the majority of voters rally behind him.

        The person with the second most support in the party is just as old and is continuing to endorse Biden.

        Anybody but Harris at the top of the ticket as a replacement means whoever gets the nomination will have a billion dollar deficit in running against Trump, meaning they have no shot at winning (seeing that they would be running against the only person in modern history who has won an election despite raising less money).

        If Biden’s mind is as bad as we think it is, Kamala has been acting as president. She’s been a fairly good president, all things considered.

        If Biden can’t win this, nobody in the roster can.

        • MegaUltraChicken@lemmy.world
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          5 days ago

          At this point, I think there’s an argument that Biden stepping aside as the candidate and endorsing Harris is the best play. Not because I think it’s a good idea, but because Biden is simply not performing as a winning candidate right now. Even with the onslaught of bullshit from the press, trolls, and conservatives I can’t justify his lack of urgency and getting in front of cameras. I desperately want SOTU Biden to show up at his press conference tomorrow, I just don’t have a ton of confidence he will anymore. That guy CAN win.

    • electric_nan@lemmy.ml
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      6 days ago

      Anyone that genuinely likes Biden will absolutely vote “blue no matter who” (unless by some miracle it was an actual leftist maybe).

    • Yawweee877h444@lemmy.world
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      6 days ago

      I think it’s the exact opposite. With biden or kamala trump has the best chance. Any biden supporting group who would jump over to trump or not vote if biden pulled out, I think would be minimal. Nobody is energized for biden, everyone is worried about trump.

      If he did drop out for someone else, younger and able to speak clearly, I think we’d have a wave of enthusiasm. Imagine another debate with trump and a younger well spoke replacement, trump would be trounced.

      Bring in any of the potentials mentioned (except kamala, I can’t stress this enough), and I’d feel way more excited for the election. It ain’t gonna happen now, but just saying. With biden staying in people are righteously nervous.

      • WamGams@lemmy.ca
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        5 days ago

        Campaign finance laws ensure it can’t be anybody but Harris. If Harris can’t win an election against Trump, yet Biden might, we have to vote Biden for a Kamala presidency.

  • HogsTooth@lemmy.world
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    6 days ago

    Nobody begins to tackle the constitutionality of Biden leaving after some of the primaries have closed. Every primary that has closed will not have had the opportunity to vote for whoever replaces Biden. The right will rip us a new one for installing a candidate without voting for them and for once they’d be right. With democracy on the line we cannot forgo democracy.

      • HogsTooth@lemmy.world
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        6 days ago

        I’ve never heard of this. If Biden does win the primary would this still be an option or is it dependent on him coming up short?

        • xmunk@sh.itjust.works
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          6 days ago

          It’s still an option.

          America doesn’t have legal constructs around political parties so whatever the fuck the democrats do won’t go against US law - its all just “tradition”.

        • Zaktor@sopuli.xyz
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          6 days ago

          Democratic delegate voting rules require the delegates to “in good conscience” vote for who they were sent there to vote for unless they’re released by that candidate. Realistically, an open convention will only happen if Biden releases his delegates.

          • Tramort@programming.dev
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            5 days ago

            I disagree. A delegate could vote for someone else in good conscience due to health reasons of the nominee they represent.

            • Zaktor@sopuli.xyz
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              5 days ago

              Maybe? But they also might get sued and/or blacklisted from party politics. There was an interview with various delegates and even those who thought someone else should be the candidate they believed they were obligated to vote for Biden.

    • sgibson5150@slrpnk.net
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      6 days ago

      It’s not entirely democratic at the convention, even in a typical election cycle. Recall that 15% of the delegates are “unpledged party leaders and elected officials” (superdelegates).

      That aside, I don’t think there’s a constitutional issue here with respect to replacing Biden. If Dems decided to select the candidate via musical chairs or Parcheesi, to my knowledge that’s a party matter (though voters would undoubtedly take a dim view of such antics).

        • Zaktor@sopuli.xyz
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          6 days ago

          It depends on how things are run, but unless there’s a pre-decided consensus choice, multiple ballots would be likely.

          And for this choice I’m not entirely sure it’s wrong for party leaders and elected officials to have a vote. It’s not like the Biden delegates were selected at random from the public to represent it in a momentous decision. No one thought the delegates would be anything other than a formality. They were likely selected as a reward for service to Biden or as a favor to some local official.

          • Telodzrum@lemmy.world
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            6 days ago

            Same, I actually prefer a party-leadership and elected officials decide process to the primary system we have now. FiveThirtyEight did a series of podcasts about the history of the US primary system and it really brought me around to disliking the way we do it. There’s a reason that almost no other country votes on candidates for party nominations the way we do. Here’s the link: https://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/the-primaries-project/ I recommend listening to all four episodes, but the third in particular was excellent.

        • sgibson5150@slrpnk.net
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          6 days ago

          2018, right? But there hasn’t been a contested convention since the rule change. Could be quite the circus, for good or ill. Multiple ballots more likely? Guess we’ll see.

          • Telodzrum@lemmy.world
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            6 days ago

            There hasn’t been a brokered convention in the modern era of the primary system (post-1968). It would 100% be a circus. Good for TV, probably exciting, almost certainly bad for the party and its candidate. My guess would be that everything would be handled by the prospective nominees before the convention itself to avoid looking like a hot mess in front of the nation.

            The West Wing had a brokered convention that went like seven ballots. Was a good episode IIRC.

    • Telodzrum@lemmy.world
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      6 days ago

      There are no constitutional implications to a party’s nomination process so long as it doesn’t violate the law with regard to discrimination and the like. If Biden withdrew you get a brokered convention. If he withdrew after being nominated, the party’s rules would place his VP nominee at the top of the ticket (although ballots would likely still have his name due to state laws and logistics).

    • Deceptichum@quokk.au
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      6 days ago

      Uhh like how the people of New Hampshire had the opportunity to vote?

      You’re a bit late to the party if you think there is any democracy in the DNC. Bernie showed that already.